Super Bowl LX
Championship Matchup Analysis
Sunday, February 8, 2026 | 6:30 PM ET | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Seahawks
14-5
#1 NFC Seed
Patriots
13-6
#2 AFC SeedModel Breakdown
My Personal Take
My model and I are on the same page here, although I disagree with the model on the win probability. The numbers back up what the eye test has been telling us all playoffs.
Here is why Seattle wins:
- Drake Maye has been getting destroyed. He has taken 5 sacks in each playoff game. That is not sustainable against Seattle's pass rush, which has been relentless all season. Seattle's secondary is better than anything he has faced all year in my opinion.
- 86 passing yards in the AFC Championship? That is not a Super Bowl-winning performance, even if the weather played a factor. Maye looked overwhelmed, and Seattle's secondary is better than anything he has faced.
- New England has looked horrible in the playoffs. They have squeaked by on defense and luck. Seattle actually looks like a championship team.
- Sam Darnold's redemption arc is real. He is playing with confidence, the weapons around him are elite, and this team has a swagger NE simply does not have.
Executive Summary
This Super Bowl matchup features two teams that took very different paths to the championship game. The Seattle Seahawks, led by their explosive offense and opportunistic defense, are the more talented team on paper. The New England Patriots counter with their trademark discipline and a defense that has carried them through the playoffs.
My model gives Seattle a 52.7% win probability, aligning with Vegas and public sentiment. After adjusting for playoff performance, the model correctly captures what the eye test shows: Seattle is the better team. New England's offensive struggles in the playoffs, particularly Drake Maye's difficulties under pressure, are factored in. Expect the Seahawks to control this game.
Why My Model Picks Seattle
Road to Super Bowl LX
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Season Elo Rating Trajectory
Insight: Seattle has maintained a higher Elo rating throughout the entire season, peaking at 1695 after the NFC Championship. New England's rise from 1485 to 1685 is impressive, but they have never caught Seattle. That gap tells the story of this matchup.
Offensive Matchup
Rushing Offense
Passing Offense
Seattle's offense has been one of the most balanced units in the league, ranking in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards per game. Their ability to establish the run with Kenneth Walker III opens up play-action opportunities that have made their passing attack lethal.
New England counters with Drake Maye's efficient passing and a committee rushing approach led by Rhamondre Stevenson that has been surprisingly effective in the playoffs.
Defensive Matchup
Rush Defense
Pass Defense
Quarterback Duel
Sam Darnold
Seattle Seahawks | QB
Drake Maye
New England Patriots | QB
This is a fascinating quarterback matchup between a veteran finding new life and a rising star. Sam Darnold has silenced his critics with a career-best season in Seattle, showing improved decision-making and poise in the pocket.
Drake Maye, in just his second year, has exceeded expectations but has struggled in the playoffs. His passer rating looks good on paper, but the pressure he has faced (5 sacks per game in the playoffs) tells a different story. Darnold's volume numbers and playoff composure give Seattle the clear edge at the quarterback position.
Running Back Battle
Kenneth Walker III
Seattle Seahawks | RB
Rhamondre Stevenson
New England Patriots | RB
Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation in Seattle's offense, averaging over 5 yards per carry and providing the explosive runs that complement their aerial attack. His 14 rushing touchdowns tie for third in the league.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the engine of New England's ball-control offense. His patient running style and ability to break tackles make him perfect for the Patriots' clock-management approach. Against Seattle's 4.2 YPC allowed, expect Stevenson to be heavily featured.
Wide Receiver Showdown
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seattle Seahawks | WR
Stefon Diggs
New England Patriots | WR
JSN has emerged as one of the league's elite route runners. In the playoffs, he has been virtually uncoverable with 28 catches for 412 yards, an absurd 14.7 yards per reception. His ability to get open in tight windows will be crucial against New England's physical secondary.
Stefon Diggs brings veteran savvy and big-game experience to New England. His rapport with Drake Maye has grown all season, and he remains a threat to take the top off any defense. The Seattle secondary will need to be physical at the line to disrupt his timing.
Injury Report
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Injury Impact Analysis
Seattle's biggest concern is Tyler Lockett's hamstring. If he cannot go, DK Metcalf and JSN will need to carry the receiving load. Losing Abraham Lucas at RT could impact pass protection against NE's formidable edge rushers. For New England, losing Cole Strange weakens the interior line, potentially exposing Drake Maye to more pressure up the middle.
Situational Performance
Key Insight: Seattle excels in clutch situations. They are converting 42.8% of third downs and averaging 7.8 points per game in the fourth quarter. This efficiency in critical moments gives them an edge in close games.
Turnover & Sack Battle
Team Comparison Radar
Scoring Comparison
Key Matchups to Watch
SEA O-Line vs NE Pass Rush
New England's pass rush has been relentless in the playoffs, recording 12 sacks in their last 3 games. Seattle's offensive line will need to give Darnold time to find his receivers downfield. This is the most critical matchup of the game.
JSN vs NE Secondary
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been uncoverable in the playoffs. New England's corners will need to bracket him and limit the explosive plays that have defined Seattle's postseason run.
NE Run Game vs SEA Front Seven
The Patriots want to control the clock with Stevenson and their ground attack. Seattle's defense has been susceptible to the run at times. If NE can dominate time of possession, they can pull the upset.
Coaching Chess Match
Both coaching staffs have made brilliant adjustments throughout the playoffs. In-game strategy will be crucial. Expect creative play-calling and game plan wrinkles from both sides.
Advanced EPA Breakdown
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Betting Analysis
My model sees this as closer to a pick'em (SEA -0.9), but I agree with the public on this one. Seattle should win comfortably. The Patriots are live underdogs on paper, but Seattle's talent advantage is too big to overcome.
Both offenses have been explosive in the playoffs, averaging a combined 57.9 PPG. With two elite QBs and potent offenses, expect points.
Player Prop Picks
Super Bowl History
Seattle Seahawks
1-2 in Super Bowls
New England Patriots
6-5 in Super Bowls
Model's Final Prediction
28
My model gives Seattle a 52.7% win probability after factoring in both team's playoff performance.
Key factors driving Seattle's edge:
- Seattle's playoff EPA: +0.212 (excellent) vs NE's playoff EPA: -0.147 (poor)
- Superior turnover margin (+8 vs +5)
- Higher Elo rating throughout the season
- Balanced offensive attack that can attack NE's weaknesses
New England's defense is solid, but their offense has been a liability. Drake Maye cannot sustain another game with 5+ sacks against Seattle's relentless pass rush.
My Personal Prediction
Seattle covers easily. Darnold outplays Maye, Walker runs wild, and JSN has a monster game. Maye has yet to have a good game against a good pass rush this year, and Seattle's pass rush is one of the best in the league. The Seahawks avenge Super Bowl XLIX in convincing fashion.